Analysis of China's electric power development and Reform (2021)
Analysis of China's electric power development and Reform (2021)
In 2020, new progress will be made in the high-quality development of the power industry. The overall power supply and demand in China is balanced, and the production and consumption structure continues to be optimized. The total installed capacity of renewable energy power generation has reached 930 million KW, accounting for 42.4% of the total installed capacity, and the power generation capacity has reached 2.2 trillion kwh, accounting for 29.5% of the power consumption of the whole society; The reform of the power system continued to deepen, the regulatory system for transmission and distribution electricity prices was basically improved, and the market trading electricity exceeded 3.1 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%; Further energy conservation and consumption reduction, the standard coal consumption of power supply is 305.5g/kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9g/kwh. Combined with the power operation in recent ten years, this report analyzes China's power supply and demand situation, operation characteristics, reform progress and development direction from multiple perspectives for reference.
Analysis of China's electric power development and Reform (2021)
author:Cui xiaoli wangxuechen
In 2020, new progress will be made in the development of high-quality power. The overall balance of power supply and demand in China has been maintained, and the supply and demand structure has been continuously optimized. The national installed capacity of full-scale power generation is 2.2 billion kw, and the total installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation is 980 million KW, accounting for 44.8%, a record high. The full-scale power generation is 7.62 trillion kwh, and the power generation from renewable energy is 2.2 trillion kwh. The reform of the power system went further, the regulatory system for transmission and distribution electricity prices was basically improved, and the market trading electricity exceeded 3.1 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. At the same time, energy conservation and consumption reduction are further improved. The standard coal consumption for power supply is 305.5g/kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9g/kwh.
Under the target requirements of carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutralization before 2060, the power industry should ensure safe and reliable power supply, accelerate clean and low-carbon transformation and achieve the carbon emission reduction target in 2021.
1、 The power consumption of the whole society has increased steadily, and the power consumption structure has been optimized day by day
(I)
The electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down
In 2020, the power consumption of the whole society in China will grow steadily and the growth rate will be slightly slow. According to the data of China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as "China Electricity Council"), in 2020, the power consumption of the whole society will be 7511 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Affected by the epidemic, there are many variables in power demand and power supply in 2020, showing uncertainty, especially the secondary and tertiary industries. In the second half of the year, with the continuous promotion of resumption of work and production, business and market, the demand for electricity rebounded rapidly.
During the "13th five year plan" period, the average annual growth of power consumption in the whole society was 5.7%, 0.6 percentage points lower than that during the "12th Five Year Plan" period. 2015 was the first year of the 13th five year plan. China's macroeconomic growth shifted into the new normal of development, and the growth mode changed. In that year, the power consumption of the whole society was 5.69 trillion kwh, and the growth rate fell to 0.96%, the lowest in many years. After 2016, the upgrading of industrial structure was accelerated, and the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society picked up. In 2019, the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society increased to 4.47%. In 2020, due to the sudden epidemic, the demand for electricity was affected again. China continued to promote the resumption of work and production, business and market by taking strict prevention and control measures. The economy achieved restorative growth in the second quarter, and the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society got rid of low expectations, and the actual growth rate reached 3.1%.
Figure 1 power consumption and growth rate of the whole society from 2011 to 2020 (unit: 100 million kwh,%)
(II)
Quarterly electricity consumption rises with the progress of resumption of work and production
In 2020, the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society picked up steadily in each quarter, which was consistent with the trend of economic growth in each quarter, and the recovery trend was strong in the fourth quarter. In 2020, the growth rate of the whole society's electricity consumption in each quarter was - 6.5%, 3.9%, 5.8% and 8.1% respectively. In the first quarter, due to the epidemic, the growth rate of power consumption decreased significantly. With the steady recovery of economic operation, the growth rate of power consumption gradually picked up in the second, third and fourth quarters, with a growth rate of 8.1% in the fourth quarter, the highest in recent years. The steady recovery of economic operation is the main reason for the recovery of power consumption growth. The quarterly growth trend of power consumption in the whole society reflects that with the effective control of the epidemic and the gradual implementation of the National Counter cyclical control policies, the resumption of work and production, business and city continued to achieve remarkable results, and the national economy continued to recover stably.
Figure 2 quarterly growth rate of power consumption of the whole society from 2018 to 2020 (unit:%)
(III)
The growth rate of industrial power consumption increased quarter by quarter
In 2020, the power consumption of the secondary and tertiary industries will increase slightly. By industry, the power consumption of the primary industry was 85.9 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, which is the only industry to achieve double-digit growth. The power consumption of the secondary industry was 5121.5 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The power consumption of the tertiary industry was 1208.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. The domestic power consumption of urban and rural residents was 1095 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%.
2、 The growth rate of power consumption in the tertiary industry was 2.5% and 1.9% respectively, down 1.3 and 7.6 percentage points respectively compared with 2019. In 2020, the growth rate of power consumption of the secondary industry in each quarter was - 8.8%, 3.3%, 5.8% and 7.6% respectively. The resumption of work and production continued to promote, driving the growth rate of each quarter to continue to rise. Industrial power recovery has become an important force driving the growth of power consumption. In the third and fourth quarters of 2020, the growth rate of power consumption in high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, driving the rapid growth of power consumption in the whole society. The growth rate of power consumption of the tertiary industry in each quarter was - 8.3%, 0.5%, 5.9% and 8.4% respectively. With the continuous promotion of business resumption and market restoration, the growth rate of power consumption of the tertiary industry increased quarter by quarter. Notably, the power consumption of information transmission / software and information technology services increased by 23.9% year-on-year. Thanks to the rapid promotion and application of new technologies such as big data, cloud computing and the Internet of things, it has promoted the rapid growth of online industry.
Table 1 power consumption by industry from 2011 to 2020 (unit: 100 million kwh)
Note: in March 2018, the notice on Revising the provisions on the division of three industries (2012) issued by the National Bureau of statistics clearly adjusted the "agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery service industry" to the tertiary industry, and then renamed it "agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery professional and auxiliary activities". The power industry carried out industry statistics according to the latest standards to ensure data comparability, Data after 2017 have been reclassified according to the new standards.
The growth rate of primary production and domestic power consumption of urban and rural residents picked up, respectively 10.2% and 6.9%, 6 and 1.2 percentage points higher than that in 2019. In 2020, the growth rate of power consumption of the primary industry in each quarter was 4.0%, 11.9%, 11.6% and 12.0% respectively, and the growth rate exceeded 10% for three consecutive quarters. The rapid growth of power consumption in the primary industry mainly benefits from the transformation and upgrading of rural power grid, the improvement of rural power consumption conditions, power substitution, poverty alleviation and rural development, and the potential of power consumption in the primary industry has been released. The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased rapidly in the second and fourth quarters. The quarterly growth rates were 3.5%, 10.6%, 5.0% and 10.0% respectively.
Figure 3 growth rate of power consumption by industry from 2018 to 2020 (unit:%)
(IV)
The proportion of tertiary industry and residential power consumption has expanded year by year, and the power consumption structure continues to be optimized
While the power consumption of the whole society maintains a steady growth, the power consumption structure is increasingly optimized. The proportion of electricity used by the secondary industry has gradually shrunk, and the proportion of electricity used by the tertiary industry and residents has gradually expanded. With the further rapid development of emerging service industry and the improvement of living standards of urban and rural residents, the power consumption structure will be further inclined to tertiary industries and residents.
Table 2 power consumption structure of the whole society from 2017 to 2020
In 2020, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the western region will take the lead. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in the eastern, central, Western and northeast regions will be 2.1%, 2.4%, 5.6% and 1.6% respectively. A total of 27 provinces in China showed positive growth in power consumption, of which 8 provinces such as Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Guangxi, Jiangxi and Anhui increased by more than 5%.