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Where is the "high ground" for future global renewable energy development?

Expert Opinion:

Over the next five years, the main battlegrounds for installed renewable energy growth will continue to be China, India, Europe and North America, with some significant opportunities emerging in Latin America, represented by Brazil.

The Sunnyside Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis (hereinafter referred to as the "Sunnyside Statement"), issued by the United States and China, states that in the critical decade of the 21st Century 20's, the two countries support the efforts outlined in the G20 Leaders' Declaration to triple global renewable energy installations by 2030 and plan to sufficiently accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources in both countries from 2020 levels by 2030, with the aim of accelerating the substitution of coal, oil, and gas for electricity generation, which would result in the expectation of meaningful absolute reductions of emissions from the electric power sector at the end of the peaking period.

In the industry's view, "tripling the global installed capacity of renewable energy by 2030" is a difficult but achievable goal, which requires the joint efforts of all countries to eliminate development bottlenecks and contribute to the realization of this goal. Led by this goal, the future, the global wind power, photovoltaic-based new energy will enter the fast lane of development.

"A difficult but achievable goal."

According to a report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), by the end of 2022, the global installed capacity of renewable energy will be 3,372 gigawatts (GW), a year-on-year increase of 295 GW, a growth rate of 9.6%. Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower accounted for the highest proportion of 39.69%, the installed capacity of solar power generation accounted for 30.01%, the installed capacity of wind power generation accounted for 25.62%, and the installed capacity of bioenergy, geothermal energy and ocean energy together accounted for about 5%.

"World leaders have been pushing to triple global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030. This target is equivalent to increasing installed renewable energy capacity to 11TW by 2030," says a report published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, noting that "this is a tough but achievable goal" and a necessary condition for achieving net-zero emissions. While the last tripling of installed renewable energy capacity took 12 years (2010-2022), this tripling must be accomplished in eight years, requiring concerted global action to remove development bottlenecks.

Zhang Shiguo, executive director and secretary-general of the New Energy Overseas Development Alliance, pointed out in an interview with China Energy News, "This goal is very encouraging, and in the current critical period of global new energy development, it is of great significance to broaden the total amount and scale of global new energy installed capacity on a macro scale, in order to push forward the global response to climate change, especially low-carbon development. "

 

In Zhang Shiguo's view, the current global development of renewable energy has a good technical and industrial foundation. "As an example, in September 2019, China's first 10-megawatt offshore wind turbine was officially launched; in November 2023, the world's largest 18-megawatt direct-drive offshore wind turbine, for which China has completely independent intellectual property rights, was successfully launched. Within a short period of more than four years, the technology has realized a rapid progress. At the same time, China's solar power generation technology is also developing at an unprecedented rate. These technologies are the physical foundation for realizing the triple goal."

 

"In addition, our industrial supporting capacity is also improving, and in the past two years the world has been trying to promote the high-quality development of new energy equipment manufacturing. In addition to the quality of installed power, the efficiency index and energy consumption index of equipment for wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy and other equipment have also been improved tremendously, creating favorable conditions to support the rapid development of renewable energy." Zhang Shiguo said.

Different regions contribute differently to the global goals

The report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) shows that the increase in global installed renewable energy capacity in 2022 will be mainly concentrated in a few countries and regions such as Asia, the United States and Europe. The data show that nearly half of the new installed capacity in 2022 will come from Asia, with China's new installed capacity reaching 141 gigawatts (GW), making it the largest contributor. Africa's new renewable energy installed capacity of 2.7 GW in 2022, the total existing installed capacity of 59 GW, accounting for only 2% of the total global installed capacity.

Pengbo New Energy Finance pointed out in a related report that for the global renewable energy installed capacity to triple the target, the contribution of different regions varies. "For regions with early renewable energy development, such as China, the United States and Europe, tripling installed renewable energy capacity is a reasonable target. Other markets, especially those with smaller renewable energy bases and higher growth rates in electricity demand, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, need to more than triple the growth rate of installed capacity by 2030. In these markets, the use of affordable renewable energy is not only critical to the energy transition, it is key to realizing the provision of electricity to millions of people. At the same time, there are other markets that already get most of their electricity from renewables or other low-carbon power sources, and their contribution to tripling the global installed renewable energy capacity is likely to be even lower."

 

According to Zhang Shiguo, "In the next five years, the main battlegrounds for growth in installed renewable energy will remain China, India, Europe and North America, with some significant opportunities emerging in Latin America, represented by Brazil. Like Central Asia, Africa, and even South America's installed renewable energy, because of the constraints imposed by the natural endowment as well as the grid system, industrialization and other factors, may not grow so fast. The Middle East's new energy resources, especially light conditions are very good, how to convert these resource endowments into real installed renewable energy, is whether to achieve the triple goal of an important factor, which requires industrial innovation and support for the development of renewable energy supporting measures."

Need to remove development bottlenecks

Pengbo New Energy Finance expects that, compared with PV, the wind power installation target will require more multi-sectoral action to achieve. The right mix of installations is crucial. If there is an over-reliance on PV, the power generation and emission reductions achieved by tripling renewable energy installations will be very different.

 

"Barriers to grid access for renewable energy developers should be removed, competitive offers should be supported and companies should be encouraged to enter into power purchase agreements. The government also needs to invest in the grid, streamline the project approval process, and ensure that the electric energy market and ancillary services market promote power system flexibility for better renewable energy consumption." Bloomberg New Energy Finance noted in the report.

 

Specifically for China, Lin Mingcher, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council's China Energy Transition Program, pointed out to a reporter from China Energy News, "Currently, China's wind power and photovoltaic (PV) equipment manufacturing capacity and installed capacity rank first in the world, and it is also dramatically increasing its production capacity. The goal of tripling installed renewable energy capacity is one of the best opportunities for China to reduce carbon emissions, as it will enable renewable energy-related technologies to be rapidly promoted, and costs will continue to fall as the scale effect becomes apparent. However, relevant authorities need to build more infrastructure such as transmission lines and energy storage for consuming a high percentage of volatile renewable energy, and introduce more favorable policies, sound market mechanisms, and increased system flexibility."

 

Zhang Shiguo said, "There is still a lot of room for the development of renewable energy in China, but there will be some challenges in it, such as the challenge of energy security and the challenge of how to coordinate between traditional and new energy sources, which need to be solved." New Energy Finance expects that, compared with PV, the wind power installation target will require more multi-sectoral action to achieve. The right mix of installations is crucial. If there is an over-reliance on PV, the power generation and emission reductions achieved by tripling renewable energy installations will be very different.

 

"Barriers to grid access for renewable energy developers should be removed, competitive offers should be supported and companies should be encouraged to enter into power purchase agreements. The government also needs to invest in the grid, streamline the project approval process, and ensure that the electric energy market and ancillary services market promote power system flexibility for better renewable energy consumption." Bloomberg New Energy Finance noted in the report.