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Analysis of foreign trade situation of China's photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2023


一. Photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2023 Operation Brief

In the first half of 2023, in the United States, Europe and India by strengthening the local PV manufacturing industry, weakening China's leading position in the global PV market in the background, China's PV industry production capacity stage supply exceeds demand, the industrial chain of various links to reduce the price of the obvious, the overall development of the situation is good, polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, battery wafers and photovoltaic module production have achieved a year-on-year growth of more than 60%. On the one hand, the domestic new installed capacity continues to maintain rapid growth, according to the National Energy Board released January-June national power industry statistics, PV new installed capacity of 78.42GW, an increase of 154% year-on-year, close to the new installed capacity of the whole year of 2022, accounting for 56% of the total installed capacity of the new power. On the other hand, with the transfer of production capacity of enterprises, the proportion of overseas layout to enhance the first half of 2023 PV product exports exceeded 29 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year growth of about 13%, hitting a new record high.

二.China's photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2023 Development of foreign trade

(A) China's polysilicon production increased significantly, the value of imports double-decrease

In the first half of 2023, China's polysilicon cumulative imports of $919 million, down 22.1% year-on-year; imports of 29,700 tons, a year-on-year decline of 28.6%. With 2022 polysilicon import price increase and volume decrease situation is different, the first half of 2023 polysilicon imports and imports of polysilicon imports were double decrease trend. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch statistics show that in the first half of 2023 polysilicon production of 651,700 tons, an increase of 91.3% year-on-year, the incremental increase is mainly from the optimization of the release of production capacity and expansion of incremental release of GCL-Poly, Xinjiang, Xinjiang Daquan, Runyang New Energy and other enterprises.

In the first half of China's polysilicon main source of imports were Germany, Malaysia, the United States, South Korea, France, Japan and China Taiwan. Germany is still China's largest source of polysilicon imports, imports amounted to $520 million, down 30.7% year-on-year accounting for 56.6% of total imports. Imports from Malaysia amounted to 328 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 26.2%, accounting for 35.7% of total imports.

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(B) China's silicon wafer exports have grown steadily, with Southeast Asian countries being the main export markets.

In the first half of 2022, China's PV wafer production was about 152.8GW, up about 45.5% year-on-year, and the export value reached $2.68 billion, up 21.5% year-on-year.

China's silicon wafer export market is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asian countries, the first-ranked country is Thailand, with an export value of 690 million U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 102.9%, accounting for 25.7% of the total export value; the second ranked is Vietnam, with an export value of 685 million U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, accounting for 25.6% of the total export value; the third-ranked is Malaysia, with an export value of 620 million U.S. dollars, a down 1.6% year-on-year, accounting for 23.1% of total exports.

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(C) China's battery cell exports grew steadily, exports to Turkey ranked first

In the first half of 2023, the export value of China's battery cells amounted to USD 2.4 billion, up 44.1% year-on-year, and the export volume was 19.1GW, up 83.1% year-on-year. The top three export destinations were Turkey, India and Cambodia, which together accounted for 70% of the global market share. Among them, exports to Turkey amounted to US$832 million, accounting for 34.9% of the market share, a year-on-year increase of 131.1%, ranking first; exports to India amounted to US$442 million, accounting for 18.5% of the market share, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, ranking second; exports to Cambodia amounted to US$380 million, accounting for 15.9% of the market share, a year-on-year increase of 214%, ranking third.

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(D) China's PV module export growth slowed down, Europe is still the largest export market

In the first half of 2023, China's PV module exports amounted to $23.37 billion, up 9.5% year-on-year; the export volume was 108.1GW, up 37.5% year-on-year. The top three markets were the Netherlands, Brazil, Spain, accounting for a combined 43% market share of the export market. Among them, exports to the Netherlands amounted to $6.535 billion, accounting for 28% of the market share, a year-on-year decline of 50.7%, ranking first; exports to Brazil amounted to $2.01 billion, accounting for 8.62% of the market share, a year-on-year decline of 17.8%, ranking second; exports to Spain amounted to $ 1.42 billion, accounting for 6.1% of the market share, a year-on-year decline of 9.6%, ranking third.

Europe is still China's largest export market for photovoltaic modules, in the first half of 2023, exports to the EU of 13.08 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of only 0.27% year-on-year, the spot inventory backlog is more serious. According to statistics, from January to June this year, the European market from China's imports of photovoltaic modules has accumulated 62.4 GW. Due to the optimistic atmosphere that pervaded the European market last year, coupled with the recent downturn in electricity prices in Europe, resulting in a surplus of distributor inventories. The installed capacity of the European market in the first half of this year is 33GW, and the market generally believes that the installed capacity of European PV this year is about 60-70 GW, if counting the stock and inventory, according to InfoLink Consulting statistics, the demand for PV modules is expected to reach 92 GW in a conservative manner, and the optimistic scenario is predicted to be up to 114 GW.

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(E) China's inverter exports maintain high growth, together with silicon wafers and batteries to help overseas layout

In the first half of 2023, China's inverter exports amounted to 6.16 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 95.1%. Among them, the Netherlands remained the top market for China's inverter exports, with an export volume of 2.08 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 33.8% of the total market share, a year-on-year increase of 173.7%, ranking first; exports to Germany amounted to 590 million U.S. dollars, with a market share of 9.5%, a year-on-year increase of 215%, ranking second; exports to South Africa amounted to 430 million U.S. dollars, with a 6.9% share, a year-on-year increase of 595.1%, and ranked third.