The decisive battle for electrochemical energy storage!
Under the global dual-carbon trend, the rise of energy storage is inevitable, but the cruel "war" horn has also blown.
This year, Ningde Times Chairman Zeng Yuchun said at the 2023 World Power Battery Conference that the size of the energy storage market will exceed 1TWh in 2030.
Tesla founder Musk has also always had a dream, "I hope that Tesla's energy storage segment can be developed to be indistinguishable from the automotive business, or even surpass the automotive business." He has predicted that by 2030, the size of Tesla's energy storage business will reach the size of the automotive business.
On March 2 this year, Musk further elaborated on Tesla's "Secret Ambitions" Chapter 3, the next stage of development - a complete shift to sustainable energy, with the goal of achieving 100% sustainable energy by 2050. Tesla's vision is to "accelerate the world's shift to sustainable energy," and Tesla suggests that 240TWh of energy storage, 30TW of renewable electricity, and $10 trillion in manufacturing investment will be needed globally if energy sustainability is to be fully realized.
And according to a report released by market research firm Grand View Research, the global energy storage market will reach a market size of $1.2 trillion in 2025.
It's almost an industry consensus that energy storage will be a $10 trillion super gold track in the future. Among them, electrochemical energy storage is likely to become the mainstream development trend in the future.
However, in the global trade protectionism prevails, the rise of new technologies, as well as capital frenzy under the chase, the energy storage industry situation is changing dramatically. For example, at the macro level, in order to their own power and energy security, China, the United States, Europe and other countries have elevated the energy storage to the height of national strategy, and enacted the relevant support policies, but Europe and the United States and other countries policy implies trade protection clauses, which further accelerated the process of industrialization of energy storage at the same time, but also increased the difficulty of the globalization of the development of domestic enterprises and competition.
More serious is that in recent years in the capital crazy push, energy storage industry has been facing the hidden worry of supply and demand imbalance.
According to enterprise search data show that in the past just over a year, there are nearly 60,000 companies crazy influx of energy storage track (newly registered enterprises), and comprehensive data from various institutions show that the current domestic energy storage battery capacity has more than 200GWh, but the overall capacity utilization rate from 87% in 2022 fell to less than 50% in the first half of this year, of which the household storage battery capacity utilization rate of even less than 30%. And energy storage battery and system integration project planning and construction capacity is as high as 1.5-2.0TWh.
In such an industrial situation, the price war is fierce. According to Xin fern lithium data, as of October 9, the average price of square power core (lithium iron phosphate / ternary) has fallen by more than 34% compared with the end of 2022.
"(The price) is not the lowest, only lower." Chuneng new energy announced in August, by the end of this year 280Ah energy storage lithium batteries will be sold at a price of no more than 0.5 yuan / Wh (excluding tax), and the price is not affected by fluctuations in the price of upstream lithium carbonate.
Chuneng new energy this move undoubtedly further aggravate the price war of the degree of misery, a storage battery manufacturers sales manager told 36 carbon, the current market, a number of head battery manufacturers have been a step ahead, to 0.5 yuan / Wh (equivalent to tax-inclusive price of 0.565 yuan / Wh) to start sales. And if the procurement volume is large, it can be further discounted.
And "0.5 yuan/Wh (equivalent to 0.565 yuan/Wh including tax)" has broken through the cost line of many second- and third-tier manufacturers. Zheng Hanbo, general manager of Envision Energy's energy storage division, said bluntly that some companies that rely on capital to support no core technologies, In order to survive and refinance, winning bids with low quality and low price is unsustainable and also creates hidden dangers for the industry. "The energy storage market is hot this year, but next year 80% (energy storage system integrators) may fail."
As a dark horse in the industry, Wang Pengcheng, co-founder and general manager of Haichen Energy Storage, has repeatedly emphasized a point: the next three years will be a "life and death race" in the energy storage industry. Energy storage is entering a new phase of elimination and development. The industry is entering a new phase of elimination.
It is foreseeable that in the future, the competition and game around the dominance and pricing power of global new energy, whether at the corporate level or the national level, may further escalate. All this seems to indicate that a war will begin, and the survivors will be king!